Chances in the 9th, even up after all the conservative additions President Trump has been adding to that historically leftist court, but the 9th is not where it will end. If we win in the 9th, California will have to make a HUGE decision, whether to appeal to SCOTUS where they stand a good chance of losing, which would apply that ruling to the entire country, and mag limits all across the US would start falling to challenges. best case for us. If we lose in the 9th, same thing, appeal to SCOTUS, but then we are dependant on being granted cert, and SCOTUS has traditionally shied away from 2A cases if they can.
If We win and Cali does not appeal, all well in good for everywhere under the 9th, but not a nationwide win.
Right now it's a crapshoot.